Search for: All records

Abstract Winter Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) decline plays an important role in Arctic amplification which, in turn, influences Arctic ecosystems, midlatitude weather and climate. SIC over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) shows large interannual variations, whose origin is still unclear. Here we find that interannual variations in winter BKS SIC have significantly strengthened in recent decades likely due to increased amplitudes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. La Niña leads to enhanced Atlantic Hadley cell and a positive phase North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly pattern, together with concurring Ural blocking, that transports Atlantic ocean heat and atmospheric moisture toward the BKS and promotes sea-ice melting via intensified surface warming. The reverse is seen during El Niño which leads to weakened Atlantic poleward transport and an increase in the BKS SIC. Thus, interannual variability of the BKS SIC partly originates from ENSO via the Atlantic pathway. 

Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application. 

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

 

Using long‐term moorings data together with wind and sea ice measurements, we document the characteristics and variations of upwelling in Barrow Canyon and investigate the upwelled Atlantic Water (AW) on the Chukchi Sea shelf and how it impacts the ice cover. Driven by strong northeasterly winds, upwelling occurs more often in the cold months, and the occurrence tends to increase interannually since 2001. Over the 12‐year mooring record at the mouth of Barrow Canyon, roughly 10% of the upwelling events can drive AW onto the Chukchi Sea shelf. Both AW and non‐AW upwelling events have more occurrence and stronger strength in the cold months, but do not present a significant interannual trend. These variations are associated with the northeasterly winds. Comparing to the non‐AW upwelling, the AW upwelling is generally characterized by more vertical displacement of the AW layer at the mouth of Barrow Canyon, and stronger up‐canyon volume and heat transport. In the ice‐covered period, these two types of upwelling have different consequences for forming polynyas on the shelf. Under similar wind forcing, the ice reduction appears confined in the coastal region in the non‐AW upwelling events, while during AW upwelling events, the sea ice declines dramatically in the shelf interior with 15% more ice loss. It elucidates that the heat carried by the upwelled AW plays a considerable role in modulating the ice cover in the shelf interior.

 

Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and shelf in the future will be influenced by interannual changes in the surface air temperature (SAT) in Antarctica. The SAT changes in Antarctica are related to variations in the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) during the austral summer. The SAM is a dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere and influences the Antarctic SAT with opposite changes between the northern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and Eastern Antarctica (EA). To project future changes in the Antarctic SAT, we analyzed historical and future simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 models. We found that the degree of opposite interannual SAT changes between EA and the AP increases in the future due to intensified magnitude of the SAM‐related circulation anomalies, and summers of warmer SAT in the northern AP and cooler SAT in EA increase by 4% in the future compared to the historical period. This finding has major consequences for glacier melting in the northern AP in the future because more days of extremely high SAT in the northern AP may occur in the future.

 

The sensitivity of the Arctic precipitation phases (solid and liquid) to the forcings from greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols over 2016–2080 was investigated by using the Community Earth System Model Version 1. Results show that the warming caused by the two forcings results in an increasing trend in total precipitation and a solid‐to‐liquid precipitation transition in the Arctic. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the increased rate of Arctic mean precipitation with global warming forced by aerosol reduction (7.7%/°C) is twice greater than that by increased GHG emission (3.5%/°C). The sensitivity of rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) to various forcings is much higher than that of total precipitation in the Arctic. The increased rate of RPR due to global aerosol forcing (8.4%/°C) is approximately 3 times that due to GHG forcing (2.9%/°C) in the Arctic, the differences even larger over Greenland and the eastern Arctic Ocean, resulting in more rainfall in these areas.

 

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.